Oxford Economics is forecasting 50 basis points of Bank of Canada rate increases by January 2027—a year earlier than previously projected—driven by surging oil prices and persistent inflation concerns. With the overnight rate currently at 2.25%, the forecast suggests 25-basis-point hikes in October and December, bringing rates to an estimated neutral 2.75%. For GTA real estate professionals and homebuyers, this matters significantly: mortgage rates are expected to rise, home sales volumes and prices are projected to decline through early 2027, and household debt vulnerabilities will intensify. The forecast comes amid a weakening job market—Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, lifting unemployment to 6.5%—and elevated household debt that’s already constraining consumer spending. While core inflation remains moderate at 1.9%, headline inflation has ticked up to 3.1%, largely driven by gasoline prices. Oxford warns that if oil prices don’t ease, the BoC could hike rates even higher into restrictive territory. For brokers and agents in the GTA, early client conversations about payment tolerance and rate holds are becoming essential. Read the full analysis at the source to understand how these macroeconomic shifts will reshape the region’s housing market.
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