Fixed mortgage rates continue their upward trajectory across Canada as inflation concerns mount, creating a pivotal moment for GTA borrowers evaluating their financing options.
According to mortgage strategist Robert McLister, while lenders’ funding costs haven’t dramatically surged this week, the pressure remains real. The market currently doesn’t anticipate the Bank of Canada’s first rate hike until January 2027, with five additional hikes totaling 125 basis points potentially coming through early 2028.
Here’s what’s shifting: fewer Canadians are chasing variable-rate mortgages. Data from Dominion Lending Centres Group—the nation’s largest mortgage originator—reveals that only 52.8% of prime borrowers chose variable rates this month, down from 57.1% in September. This decline reflects growing inflation anxiety and mounting concerns about future policy rate increases.
The math, however, still favors floating for many borrowers. The projected 125-basis-point increase over 15 months represents only a 15-25 basis point premium over the typical fixed-rate spread. For most GTA homebuyers and renewing borrowers, that modest difference makes variable rates appear like reasonable odds.
As oil prices surge and inflation fears persist, however, expect this calculus to shift. Read the full analysis at Financial Post to understand what’s driving these changes.
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