Canada’s banking watchdog, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), has officially flagged mortgage risk as the number one threat to the nation’s financial system for 2026-2027. This marks a significant escalation from its fourth-place ranking just last year. Driven by global economic volatility—including conflict in the Middle East and U.S. trade tensions—regulators are bracing for a rise in mortgage defaults.
With 3.1 million mortgages set to renew by the end of 2027, many homeowners face a “material” increase in monthly payments, particularly those renewing for the first time since the low-rate environment of 2021-2022. The GTA is already feeling the pressure, with a cooling condo market and construction stalls impacting both developers and the labour force. As borrowers navigate these headwinds, OSFI continues to monitor bank resilience. For a deeper dive into these projections, read the full report at thestar.com.
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