Despite ongoing challenges in Toronto’s condo market, a recent DBRS Morningstar report suggests Canada’s Big Six banks are unlikely to face major turmoil. While many homebuyers and investors grapple with plummeting values and cashflow issues, condo developer loans represent a small fraction of the banks’ portfolios – less than 1% for most in Q4 2025. Even within commercial real estate portfolios, exposure is limited, ranging from 3% at TD to 6% at Scotiabank.
Smaller lenders with higher concentrations in condo development may face greater risks. Interestingly, condo prices nationwide have fallen less than the composite of all housing types since their 2022 peak. While the new condo market struggles, the resale market shows signs of stabilization. Economic uncertainty and affordability concerns continue to keep buyers on the sidelines. For a deeper dive into the data and analysis, read the full article on mpamag.com.
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