The GTA housing market is heading into 2026 with potential trade tensions adding complexity to forecasts. While anticipated interest rate cuts and improving inventory offer some optimism, the impact of US tariff policies, particularly under a potential second Trump administration, looms large. RBC’s John Stackhouse highlights the renegotiation of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) as a critical factor. Key pressure points include digital services, softwood lumber, and auto rules of origin.
Continued softwood lumber disputes could drive up input costs for Canadian builders, potentially delaying projects. While the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts of 275 basis points since mid-2024 have eased mortgage rates, uncertainty surrounding trade has kept many buyers on the sidelines. Experts emphasize the need for a delicate balance between affordability and fiscal discipline to avoid pushing bond yields higher. For a deeper dive into the factors shaping the GTA’s housing outlook, read the full analysis on mpamag.com.
Read the original story here: https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/carney-faces-a-tariff-tightrope-rbc/560864
