Canada’s labour market deteriorated sharply in October, shedding 4,700 jobs and pushing the unemployment rate to 6.7%—marking three consecutive months of decline. The unexpected weakness has dramatically shifted expectations around the Bank of Canada’s December rate decision, with market odds for a January follow-up hike collapsing from 96% to 77% overnight.
For GTA homeowners and mortgage brokers navigating Canada’s affordability crisis, this data delivers mixed signals. While softer employment may ease pressure for further rate hikes, it underscores broader economic headwinds. Full-time positions fell by 18,100, private-sector employment dropped 52,500, and the services sector lost 25,300 jobs. Average hourly wages grew just 2.2% year-over-year, suggesting weak labour demand.
However, RBC Economics notes that prime-age unemployment remained steady at 5.6%, with weakness concentrated among youth (15-24 age group at 13.7%). The analyst maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, forecasting unemployment below 6% by late 2027.
The implications are critical: with affordability already a pressing concern for Ontarians, any further rate volatility could deepen GTA housing market strain. Jessica Rickerby, president of the Canadian Mortgage Brokers Association of Ontario, emphasized that housing affordability demands urgent attention—a reality far more immediate than inflation concerns for most residents.
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