As mortgage holders increasingly gamble on variable rates, a top National Bank economist is sounding the alarm for Greater Toronto Area borrowers: lock in a five-year fixed rate now.
Speaking at the Mortgage Professionals Canada conference, chief economist Stéfane Marion argued that long-end rates are approaching their peak, making fixed-rate mortgages more attractive than the current market sentiment suggests. While variable-rate insured mortgages sit at 3.79%—below the 4.04% five-year fixed rate—Marion contends the spread is misleading.
The economist points to structural economic forces keeping rates elevated: geopolitical disruption, rising global defence spending, and AI-driven electricity infrastructure investments are all pushing bond yields higher globally.
For GTA homeowners, the timing is critical. Ontario’s mortgage delinquency balances surged 52% year-over-year in Q1 2026, signaling renewal strain is already visible in the data. With variable-rate market share climbing back to 26% for the first time in three years, the fixed-versus-variable conversation has rarely been more consequential for borrowers.
Marion expects most rate increases are behind us, with no additional 100-basis-point spike anticipated. For borrowers prioritizing payment certainty during volatile economic conditions, his recommendation carries weight.
Read the full article at MPA Magazine
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