Canada’s labour market delivered an unexpected blow in September, shedding 68,300 jobs and pushing the national unemployment rate to 6.5%. For Greater Toronto Area real estate professionals and homebuyers, this jobs shock carries significant implications for mortgage rates and market momentum heading into the final quarter of 2026.
Five of Canada’s top Bay Street economists have reached near-unanimous consensus: the Bank of Canada will hold its policy rate steady at the October 28 meeting, with rates likely remaining unchanged through year-end. However, the picture is nuanced. While 70% of September’s job losses came from younger workers aged 15-24 experiencing seasonal headwinds, broader labour market softness—combined with trade war uncertainties and inflationary fuel price pressures—has created a complex economic backdrop.
For GTA real estate stakeholders, this stability offers temporary relief, though economists warn that hours worked data suggests weakness into Q4 and potential further unemployment rate increases in tariff-impacted sectors. The consensus positions the BoC as “data-dependent,” meaning future CPI reports and employment figures will dictate any policy shifts.
The takeaway: expect mortgage rate stability in the near term, but remain vigilant for shifts as economic data unfolds.
Read the full analysis on MPA Magazine
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